A Bayesian inference approach to account for multiple sources of uncertainty in a macroalgae based integrated multi-trophic aquaculture model

A Bayesian inference method was employed to quantify uncertainty in an Integrated Multi-Trophic Aquaculture (IMTA) model. A deterministic model was reformulated as a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) with uncertainty in the parameters accounted for using “prior” distributions and unresolved time varying processes modelled using auto-regressive processes. Observations of kelp grown in 3 seeding densities around salmon pens were assimilated using a Sequential Monte Carlo method implemented within the LibBi package. This resulted in a considerable reduction in the variability in model output for both the observed and unobserved state variables. A reduction in variance between the prior and posterior was observed for a subset of model parameters which varied with seeding density. Kullback–Liebler (KL) divergence method showed the reduction in variability of the state and parameters was approximately 90%. A low to medium seeding density results in the most efficient removal of excess nutrients in this simple system.     

基于关键拓扑变动项辨识的调度操作潮流校核方法

为解决传统调度操作潮流校核中的有效性问题，定义了一种面向调度操作的关键拓扑变动概念，提出并实现了基于关键拓扑变动辨识的调度操作潮流校核方法。首先，剖析了调度操作安全校核的实施目的，围绕其运行断面潮流校验的校核目的，定义了面向调度操作的关键拓扑变动概念，并基于网络拓扑连接关系设计了其辨识方法。在此基础上，提出了基于关键拓扑变动项辨识的调度操作潮流校核方法，明确了其实施流程和要点。最后基于当前电网调度自动化系统实际，构建了其实施框架，并介绍了其在某电网的实施效益。     

Models for circular data from time series spectra

Circular data are those for which the natural support is the unit circle and its toroidal extensions. Numerous constructions have been proposed which can be used to generate models for such data. We propose a new, very general, one based on the normalization of the spectra of complex-valued stationary processes. As illustrations of the new construction's application, we study models for univariate circular data obtained from the spectra of autoregressive moving average models and relate them to existing models in the literature. We also propose and investigate multivariate circular models obtained from the high-order spectra of stationary stochastic processes generated using linear filtering with an autoregressive moving average response function. A new family of distributions for a Markov process on the circle is also introduced. Results for asymptotically optimal inference for dependent observations on the circle are presented which provide a new paradigm for inference with circular models. The application of one of the new families of spectra-generated models is illustrated in an analysis of wind direction data.     

Bayesian threshold selection for extremal models using measures of surprise

Statistical extreme value theory is concerned with the use of asymptotically motivated models to describe the extreme values of a process. A number of commonly used models are valid for observed data that exceed some high threshold. However, in practice a suitable threshold is unknown and must be determined for each analysis. While there are many threshold selection methods for univariate extremes, there are relatively few that can be applied in the multivariate setting. In addition, there are only a few Bayesian-based methods, which are naturally attractive in the modelling of extremes due to data scarcity. The use of Bayesian measures of surprise to determine suitable thresholds for extreme value models is proposed. Such measures quantify the level of support for the proposed extremal model and threshold, without the need to specify any model alternatives. This approach is easily implemented for both univariate and multivariate extremes.     

Bayesian estimation of parametric uncertainties,quantification and reduction using optimal design of experiments for CO2 adsorption on amine sorbents

Uncertainty quantification plays a significant role in establishing reliability of mathematical models, while applying to process optimization or technology feasibility studies. Uncertainties, in general, could occur either in mathematical model or in model parameters. In this work, process of CO₂ adsorption on amine sorbents, which are loaded in hollow fibers is studied to quantify the impact of uncertainties in the adsorption isotherm parameters on the model prediction. The process design variable that is most closely related to the process economics is the CO₂ sorption capacity, whose uncertainty is investigated. We apply Bayesian analysis and determine a utility function surface corresponding to the value of information gained by the respective experimental design point. It is demonstrated that performing an experiment at a condition with a higher utility has a higher reduction of design variable prediction uncertainty compared to choosing a design point at a lower utility.     

A short guide to topological terms in the effective theories of condensed matter

This article is meant as a gentle introduction to the topological terms that often play a decisive role in effective theories describing topological quantum effects in condensed matter systems. We first take up several prominent examples, mainly from the area of quantum magnetism and superfluids/superconductors. We then briefly discuss how these ideas are now finding incarnations in the studies of symmetry-protected topological phases, which are in a sense a generalization of the concept of topological insulators to a wider range of materials, including magnets and cold atoms.     

Multichannel image contrast enhancement based on linguistic rule-based intensificators

This study follows the direct approach to image contrast enhancement, which changes the image contrast at each its pixel and is more effective than the indirect approach that deals with image histograms. However, there are only few studies following the direct approach because, by its nature, it is very complex. Additionally, it is difficult to develop an effective method since it is required to keep a balance in maintaining local and global image features while changing the contrast at each individual pixel. Moreover, raw images obtained from many sources randomly influenced by many external factors can be considered as fuzzy uncertain data. In this context, we propose a novel method to apply and immediately handle expert fuzzy linguistic knowledge of image contrast enhancement to simulate human capability in using natural language. The formalism developed in the study is based on hedge algebras considered as a theory, which can immediately handle linguistic words of variables. This allows the proposed method to produce an image contrast intensificator from a given expert linguistic rule base. A technique to preserve global as well as local image features is proposed based on a fuzzy clustering method, which is applied for the first time in this field to reveal region image features of raw images. The projections of the obtained clusters on each channel are suitably aggregated to produce a new channel image considered as input of the pixelwise defined operators proposed in this study. Many experiments are performed to demonstrate the effect of the proposed method versus the counterparts considered.     

A toolbox to find the best mechanistic model to predict the behavior of environmental systems

Reliable prediction of the long-term behavior of environmental systems such as Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) landfills is challenging. While many driving forces influence this behavior, characterization of them is limited by measurement techniques. Therefore, a model structure for reliable prediction needs to optimally combine all measured information with suitable mechanistic information from literature. How to get such an optimal model structure? This study presents a toolbox to find and build the model structure that describes an environmental system as close as possible. The toolbox combines environmental frameworks to include all suitable mechanistic information; it fully couples kinetic and equilibrium reactions and contains multiple resources to obtain biogeochemical parameters. Several possible optimal model structures are quickly built and evaluated with objective statistical performance criteria obtained via Bayesian inference. By applying the novel methodology, we select the best model structure for anaerobic digestion of MSW in full scale landfills.     

A Bayesian analysis of spherical pattern based on finite Langevin mixture

Parameter estimation is a cornerstone of most fundamental problems of statistical research and practice. In particular, finite mixture models have long been heavily relied on deterministic approaches such as expectation maximization (EM). Despite their successful utilization in wide spectrum of areas, they have inclined to converge to local solutions. An alternative approach is the adoption of Bayesian inference that naturally addresses data uncertainty while ensuring good generalization. To this end, in this paper we propose a fully Bayesian approach for Langevin mixture model estimation and selection via MCMC algorithm based on Gibbs sampler, Metropolis–Hastings and Bayes factors. We demonstrate the effectiveness and the merits of the proposed learning framework through synthetic data and challenging applications involving topic detection and tracking and image categorization.     

Structural analysis based sensors fault detection and isolation of cylindrical lithium-ion batteries in automotive applications

The battery sensors fault diagnosis is of great importance to guarantee the battery performance, safety and life as the operations of battery management system (BMS) mainly depend on the embedded current, voltage and temperature sensor measurements. This paper presents a systematic model-based fault diagnosis scheme to detect and isolate the current, voltage and temperature sensor fault. The proposed scheme relies on the sequential residual generation using structural analysis theory and statistical inference residual evaluation. Structural analysis handles the pre-analysis of sensor fault detectability and isolability possibilities without the accurate knowledge of battery parameters, which is useful in the early design stages of diagnostic system. It also helps to find the analytical redundancy part of the battery model, from which subsets of equations are extracted and selected to construct diagnostic tests. With the help of state observes and other advanced techniques, these tests are ensured to be efficient by taking care of the inaccurate initial State-of-Charge (SoC) and derivation of variables. The residuals generated from diagnostic tests are further evaluated by a statistical inference method to make a reliable diagnostic decision. Finally, the proposed diagnostic scheme is experimentally validated and some experimental results are presented.